Polling Data Trending Toward Trump, Leading Harris Nationally!

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It has been rare for Republican presidential candidates to lead national polls this century, but GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump's MAGA movement is changing that in this election cycle.

The two most recent national polls in the RealClear Politics polling average have Trump leading Harris nationally among likely voters:
A Republican candidate leading nationally, or garnering the popular vote in presidential elections, is very rare, conservatives note, because of the large Democrat strangleholds in the biggest states of California, New York, and Illinois. Those states have very large majorities of registered Democrats compared to Republicans.

While Democrats often waive the flag of "democracy," conservatives frequently note the U.S. is a "constitutional republic" which picks the president on the Electoral College votes of the states and not the popular vote.

The TIPP Insights tracking poll headline hailed "Trump Surges Past Harris, Seizing 2-Point Lead," with just 16 days left before election day Nov. 5, and the analysis noted the polling results represent "a dramatic momentum shift" from Harris to Trump.

Notably, the left-leaning Washington Post hailed the TIPP polling as the most accurate pollster in the 2020 presidential election. Also, TIPP noted from media reviews, it was just one of two national pollsters to project Trump as the 2016 presidential election winner.

The national poll lead is significant, Trump backers have noted frequently on Newsmax, including presidential adviser Dick Morris and pollsters John and Jim McLaughlin. Even a slight deficit to a Democrat in national polling would portend a Republican victory in the Electoral College, they postulate, because the race truly comes down to the seven battleground states.

RealClear Politics gives Trump a 1-point lead (48.4%-47.4%) in a composite of swing state polling in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Trump leads every single one of the seven battlegrounds in the RCP polling average:

  • Arizona (11 Electoral College votes): Trump up 1.6 points (49%-47.4%)
  • Georgia (16): Trump up 1.8 points (48.8%-47%)
  • Michigan (15): Trump up 1.2 points (48.8%-47.6%)
  • North Carolina (16): Trump up 0.5 points (48.4%-47.9%)
  • Nevada (6): Trump up 0.8 points (47.7%-46.9%)
  • Pennsylvania (19): Trump up 0.7 points (48.1%-47.4%)
  • Wisconsin (10): Trump up 0.2 points (48%-47.8%)
The TIPP Tracking Poll surveyed 1,254 likely voters Oct. 17-19, and the results have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

The Atlas National Poll surveyed 4,180 likely voters Oct. 12-17, and the results have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.


 
They call them battleground states for a reason. All the results you posted from the TIPP polls for those states fall within the margin of error. What that tells me is that right now it's impossible to make a guess on who will win the electoral votes of those states that will be any more accurate than flipping a coin. As a result, neither candidate's campaign can afford to think they have any of those states nailed down. They are going to need to keep up a strong effort right up to election day. The close race should be a boon for the news networks providing life election coverage, the longer the viewer is sitting on the edge of their seat the more ad money the networks will get. For my part I don't plan to be glued to the TV watching all the election coverage. I've a lot of work coming up the next couple weeks so all I'll be able to do is check in on streamed election updates on the internet.

Sadly, even with such a close election for president I expect that voter turnout still won't get close to hitting ⅔ of eligible voters. The 2020 and 1960 elections had the largest turnout by percentage of eligible voters we had in 100 years, both at 62.8%. Very few over that time period even passed 60%. Yet when things don't go well those who didn't vote are sometimes the ones you hear complaining about it the loudest.
 
Tax Counsel said:
They call them battleground states for a reason. All the results you posted from the TIPP polls for those states fall within the margin of error. What that tells me is that right now it's impossible to make a guess on who will win the electoral votes of those states that will be any more accurate than flipping a coin. As a result, neither candidate's campaign can afford to think they have any of those states nailed down. They are going to need to keep up a strong effort right up to election day. The close race should be a boon for the news networks providing life election coverage, the longer the viewer is sitting on the edge of their seat the more ad money the networks will get. For my part I don't plan to be glued to the TV watching all the election coverage. I've a lot of work coming up the next couple weeks so all I'll be able to do is check in on streamed election updates on the internet.

Sadly, even with such a close election for president I expect that voter turnout still won't get close to hitting ⅔ of eligible voters. The 2020 and 1960 elections had the largest turnout by percentage of eligible voters we had in 100 years, both at 62.8%. Very few over that time period even passed 60%. Yet when things don't go well those who didn't vote are sometimes the ones you hear complaining about it the loudest.
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the way it is set now, the votes really only matter in the battleground states which could go either way. I voted today, Red straight across with the exception of marijuana bill -- that should be legal in all states. People could use that for pain management.
 
Redemptionman said:
voted today, Red straight across with the exception of marijuana bill -- that should be legal in all states. People could use that for pain management.
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The problem with legalizing any potentially addictive drug, is that many people are weak. Their weaknesses cause many of them to fall into a life ending spiral down into the pits of drug addiction/abuse.

One needs only to see how many people become alcoholics. The people with a propensity to use and/or abuse drugs, tend NOT to know when to say when, or no than you, I'll pass.
 

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