army judge
Super Moderator
The so-called "Nostradamus" [Allan Lichtman] of U.S. elections admitted he was wrong after former—and now future—president Donald Trump won the 2024 contest, contradicting his prediction that Vice President Kamala Harris would emerge victorious.
Historian Allan Lichtman's model, "The Keys to the White House," has correctly predicted the outcome of nine out of 10 of the presidential elections prior to this year, earning him the comparison to the 16th century French reputed seer. The model hinges on 13 keys, all true/false statements, that evaluate the standing on the incumbent party based on a variety of factors which include the economy, foreign policy, and domestic politics.
If six or more are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose the election. If five or fewer are false, it is expected to win. In September, Lichtman officially forecast that Harris would win the election, based on the keys.
Trump won by a comfortable margin.
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